Impacts of climate change

Impacts of climate change for the Waimate District

Canterbury’s climate is changing, and these changes are highly likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It is internationally accepted that human greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant cause of recent rapidly changing global climate, and that further changes will result from increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The rate of future climate change depends on how fast greenhouse gas concentrations increase. (NIWA 2020).

According to the Ministry for the Environment, the impacts of climate change for the Waimate District and wider Canterbury region can be summarised as follows:

• Water shortages – Higher temperatures, less frequent but more intense rainfall and greater evapotranspiration are likely to cause increasing pressure on water ecosystems and resources.  Droughts are likely to become more frequent and more extreme.
• Fire risk – Strong winds, combined with high temperatures, low humidity and seasonal drought may result in an increased fire risk in some areas. The length of the fire season is expected to increase.
• Sea level rise – As the climate changes and the sea level rises, it is likely that Canterbury will face increased flooding in some areas, particularly around the lower lying areas. Coastal erosion is likely to increase, which may prove to be problematic for some communities.
• Biosecurity – Climate change could increase the spread of pests and weeds. Banana passionfruit, a frost-tender plant, appears to be spreading, and Argentine ants have survived through two winters, which was previously not thought possible. There may also be an increased threat to native species from changed distribution of disease vectors.
• Agriculture – Warmer temperatures, a longer growing season and fewer frosts could provide opportunities to grow new crops. Farmers might also benefit from faster growth of pasture and better crop growing conditions. However, these benefits may be limited by negative effects of climate change such as prolonged drought, increased flood risk, and greater frequency and intensity of storms. More extreme weather events such as hard frosts or hailstorms could devastate some crops in particular localities. There is also likely to be increasing pressure on water resources.